The stern warning underscores Tehran’s resolve to retain control over the Strait of Hormuz and to resist transits that bypass its authorization. It also highlights the lingering uncertainty facing shipowners navigating the Strait even after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding last week to reopen the strategically vital energy artery.
The IRGC Navy said that only the shipping routes designated by Iran are permitted for passage, and that coordination with Iranian forces via the designated communication channel is mandatory.
Analysts have warned that any form of Iranian control could have long-term effects on oil flows through the Strait, as transits may not fully recover to pre-war levels if Tehran retains strategic control of the waterway.
Oil tanker traffic through Hormuz before the war might represent the high point for transits for the foreseeable future, said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “Any end to the conflict that leaves Iran exercising operational control and influence over the Strait will result in appreciably lower flows through the waterway in our view,” Croft told clients in a Thursday note.